Trump's dilemma. How Iran got sucker punched and how some see a golden opportunity for full spectrum destruction of Iran.
“Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” A quote attributed to Mark Twain, lover of cats. This quote is true, it seems whereas another of Twain’s quotes: “the coldest winter I spent was a summer in San Francisco” is apparently not really Twains, although he did complain about the weather there, as do most people who live there, including me. I would remember barreling down the 101 Highway from the north on my motorbike, coming into Marin County where the temperature could be in the 30s and then feel it cool as I headed toward the Golden Gate bridge. As I would come out of the Waldo Tunnel at the top of a hill, with the view of the city ahead, I would often be met by this freezing, grey cloud, blanketing the city, the tops of the Golden Gate Bridge sticking out the top and the temperature around 15 degrees. You gotta love it.
The blogosphere is full of commentators – left, right, center, financial blogs etc., all speculating on the “imminent” demise of the U.S. as the unipolar hegemon of the world and China’s ascendance as a done deal. It is true, perhaps and it is true that the financial and political foundation of many Western countries of the mostly Anglo-Saxon, Zionist, Western Empire (or whatever preferred description you like), is looking very vulnerable.
Even if true, what is also true is that power is not given up without a struggle and the stronger the threat, the stronger the reaction. The situation in Iran is an example of that. Iran was caught off guard and for many complex reasons – naivety, internal political contradictions, financial instability etc., Iran allowed itself to be exposed to the ruthless agenda of the Zionist/Western forces, determined to bring it down, come what may. Iran is the one country in the region that has resisted the Hegemon’s agenda for full spectrum domination and so needed to be taken out. As mentioned in the last article, Israel hoped that decapitation campaign would do the trick and if not, that the U.S. would send the cavalry in, pronto. So far it hasn’t happened and Iran’s approach, instead of full-on frontal campaign to destroy as much as they can, has been to chip away and preserve their military reserves while depleting Israel’s defenses. So far, despite the propaganda, it seems to be working.
Iran’s presumptions:
Iran used the nuclear enrichment argument partly as a bargaining chip and partly because it legitimately believed it had a right to pursue peaceful nuclear power, which it did, naively. But that matters not to the powers of Zionist supremacy. An argument made here by Hua Bin on Unz Review states that Iran, if really serious, should have gone for the nuclear deterrent option, like North Korea, which would have given it way more protection against the threat of a rapacious Israel, determined on regional, if not global supremacy. Bin’s article is entitled, Revolution is Not a Dinner Party: Iran’s disastrous nuclear strategy is no match for Israeli and U.S. ruthlessness. It is sober reading. Iran’s naivety is such that just recently they let the IAEA to inspect their nuclear programme, again, whereas Israel has never allowed them in. The IAEA then came up with some dubious evidence to show Iran was not in full compliance and it is distinctly possible that they also divulged details of the location of Iranian civilian workers in the nuclear industry to Israel. But this was used to further validate Israel’s response but further compromised the integrity of the IAEA, which has been remarkably muted over Israel’s illegal attack of Iran’s nuclear power stations.
Bin’s main argument is that in the world of realpolitik, Iran simply should have gone for the nuclear deterrent strategy. It knew that Israel and the West was planning to destroy the country, in a repeat of what happened in 1953. For heaven’s sake, on the BBC yesterday, that horrible commentator, Laura Kuenssberg was interviewing the son of the late Shah who said it is great that Israel is bombing the country, killing hundreds, if not thousands, and potentially destroying the political autonomy of the country. It would be like interviewing Pol Pot’s son about Cambodia.
Bin states that Iran’s allies in the region, the so-called Axis of Resistance has been seriously compromised, including Hezbollah and that certain intrinsic weaknesses were to be found in Iran, including:
· Lack of discipline in the top military who exposed themselves unnecessarily to terrorist attacks by Mossad and their proxies. He even suggests that former President Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash could have been a victim of Mossad terrorism. In other words, Iranian military should have been better prepared.
· Deeply penetrated security system, evidenced by the assassination of Hamas’ leader Haniyeh last year. This should have been a big warning.
· Division between nationalist hardliners and western proxies (aka, liberals), creating widely divergent objectives and goals.
He said that Iranian society also suffered serious long-term internal contradictions including:
· A nominal electoral system that operates withing a theology where secular interests and the clergy are never really reconciled, leading to a demoralized and disillusioned population. (It is this narrative that Netanyahu and others have been speaking to, implying that Israel is there to help Iranian people throw off the yolk of fundamentalist Islam and embrace Western culture, of which Israel is the ONLY example in the region.)
· Dual military structure of the Iranian Revolutionary National Guard (IRGC) and the national army, and that embedded corruption within the IRGC has weakend Iran’s national defense and polluted the Axis of Resistance.
· The utter lack of any Islamic unity within any countries in the region. No one is going to come to Iran’s aid.
Sex, Lies and Videotape: the golden opportunity for defenders of Zionism and the American Empire:
Trump said he didn’t know what was going to happen in Ukraine the other week when U.K./CIA operatives along with their Ukrainian counterparts bombed Russia’s nuclear defenses, attacking planes that carry nuclear warheads, as well as terrorist sabotage of bridges. Is this true? Either way, it looked really bad, undermining Trump’s authority, but who cares now?
Trump said that he DID know about Israel’s plans to attack Iran, while publicly saying to the world that the negotiations are going well and the next round was due to happen on the Sunday AFTER Israel declared war. Again, in normal times, this would look really bad. A sitting President of the U.S.A openly admitting to lying simply to make the Iranians’ unprepared for the planned attack, which was YEARS in the making. After the bombing, Trump said it was excellent and he was simply fed up with waiting. WTF.
Maybe Trump did know. Maybe he didn’t, and was caught off guard by Netanyahu and his Zionist allies in the West, in particular ones in the U.S. where they control much of what goes down in Washington. Trump had taken many millions of dollars from Jewish and Christian Zionists, including of course, Miriam Adelson, former wife of Sheldon Adelson. Trump is bought and must do their bidding, at least to some extent. True, he also has to navigate his own MAGA base and some people in his administration, including VP Vance and Tulsi Gabbard who are less zealous in their fealty to Zionism and the cause of Israel. However, in the end, Trump’s narcissism and survival instincts will likely ensure he will do the bidding of the Zionist extremists, at least to some extent. Rumour has it he may send Vance and Gabbard on a fool’s errand to try and do a “deal” with the Iranian regime, if it doesn’t collapse before, but with terms that will make it impossible to succeed, essentially throwing them under a bus, which he has partially already done with Gabbard. If Vance doesn’t pray to the altar of Zionist extremism, he could be next, unless Trump is also keeping some cards close to control the excesses of the Zionist lobby. Who knows?
In the end it doesn’t matter to the West what Iran had in terms of nuclear enrichment. They simply make shit up as they go along and the media repeats it, ad nauseam. Reality has nothing to do with it. As this article by Alex Krainer explores, there are a lot of possible angles here, including Trump’s personal agenda, the relationship to Netanyahu and Zionism in general and how other countries are now playing the region, of course, Britain being very involved. Krainer questions how Trump could get away with admitting to lying so much and in such a devious and cynical way. He questions why Trump would take such a risk to do this and drag the U.S. into a war that could essentially destroy his presidency. It seems most Americans have no stomach for outright war. Does he really know that Israel will do the job without the U.S. or is he really being played by the Zionists. How big is the risk for Trump and is he now hedging his bets to see where the cards fall in the next days as Israel and Iran continue the bombing. For Iran, it is a balancing act. If they bomb too hard and for example, take out the desalination plants, Israel is likely to go berserk and the Zionists will demand Trump intervenes. Will he able to resist and would he want to? But if Iran keeps chipping away, then it makes Trump’s response less clear.
From a pro Zionist/Western point of view, this moment is now a golden opportunity. It is an opportunity to take down one of the most resilient adversaries to Western hegemony in the region and in particular to Israel’s domination and the larger Zionist agenda. This is truly the moment and many of those who despise everything the Iranian regime represents see this a crucial, vital moment. If the Iranian regime is not taken down now, after its allies have been neutralized and it is on its knees, this opportunity may disappear. You can read this perspective on Victor Davis Hanson’s substack. Or you can read the Jerusalem Post, courtesy of Simplicius, where it is admitted that the goal is to partition Iran up into a number of mini statelets that can be controlled at will.
From the Western perspective the timing of this attack also revolves around a critical development in the economic alignment of China, Russia and Iran with the opening of a railroad between Iran and China. This would allow Iran to circumvent sanctions and threaten the economic and political balance in the whole region as it would directly link Iran to Russia and China. This image also taken from an article by Simplicius explores this whole perspective.
Trump’s dilemma:
The problem Trump has now is that, if he takes things to the next step, it is to attempt to blow up Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites, in particular at Fordow, using his B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia. As we saw in a previous post, the U.S. Navy had a propaganda movie making it look like a slam dunk. It would likely not be that easy and in fact would be deeply risky as if even one B-2 bomber goes down, it would be deeply humiliating for the U.S. and Trump, and even they did hit their target, would it actually work? It is not clear and I am sure Trump is being given conflicting advice on this as we speak. Even as Israel states that they have control over Iran’s skies, it is clearly not the case, as there is no evidence of Israel F-35’s screaming across the sky in Tehran. Mostly its missiles and drones and maybe a little incursion on the border of Iran. Iran’s defenses are mostly intact and Israel isn’t risking their planes right now. If the U.S. chooses to send the B-2 bombers in, they would have to run this gauntlet. Would their electronic jamming capabilities be enough? Does Trump want to get involved in a protracted campaign to even begin to control the skies and threaten to immerse the U.S. in a protracted war. He doesn’t want this and his MAGA base will likely not tolerate it. Knowing Trump now, it is likely he is bluffing, full of hot air and is reluctant to go all in. It would be easier for Trump to try and take out Khamenei and declare victory and let the chips fall, ideally leading to regime change and where the Jackals can go in and carve up the country.
The choice is going to have to be taken soon. Does Trump go all in, does he try and do some kind of face-saving deal with Iran, maybe using Russia to mediate, or right now Send Vance and Witkoff to try and do a deal, or does he just try and take out Khamenei and get the hell out, and/or keep bluffing some time longer and hope Iran implodes on its own. He could just launch a bunch of cruise missiles, and avoid actually going into Iran and then try and get Iran to come negotiate again. Would this work? For the neo-cons and Zionists in Israel and U.S. nothing short of regime change and the cutting up of the country will do. Israel’s domination of the region is paramount and for the West, especially Britain, carving up Iran and maintaining the pressure on Russia for the long term is key. The rest of Europe is pretty much in the same camp as Britain now. However, for the U.S. and Trump’s position as Mr America First, he is in a quandary and no one know which way the cards are going to fall.