Letter from America: Dr Allan Cunningham: October 3rd: RSV vaccine anyone?

OCTOBER IS HERE, BUT AMERICANS AREN’T WORRIED ABOUT RESPIRATORY VIRUSES

US public health officials continue to issue exhortations about Covid, influenza and RSV viruses and the manufacturers plague us with advertisements for the vaccines, but let’s put things in perspective: at last count there were 270 distinct viruses known to infect humans, including at least 220 respiratory viruses. (“Disease-causing human viruses: novelty and legacy” Forni et al, Trends in Microbiology 2022;30:1232) The best known respiratory viruses are influenza, RSV, parainfluenza, HMPV, coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, and enteroviruses—and they all can do real damage. Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading infectious cause of morbidity and mortality globally. In 2021 there were 65.4 million viral lower respiratory infections worldwide, including 14.4 million from influenza and 4.4 million from RSV. (“Unveiling the viral aetiologies of lower respiratory infections” Li & Wang, Lancet Infect Dis 2024;24:938) We know that flu shots, at least, have non-specific immunologic effects that increase the risk of illness from non-influenza viruses. So, when we vaccinate the population against influenza etc. we should know that there are hundreds of other viruses out there waiting. Right now, nearly as many entero-rhinoviruses as Covid-19 viruses are circulating in North America. (

https://www.publichealthontario.ca

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/respiratory-virus-detections/)

We have no proof that the Covid/influenza vaccines save lives, but the CDC continues to push annual flu and Covid shots for every man, woman and child over 6 months of age. In spite of the propaganda, vaccine uptake has been dropping the last few years. As of September 27, 2024, just 9.6% of American adults had gotten this year’s flu shot and only 4.5% had received Covid boosters. 34% of adults 75 and over had received the highly advertised RSV vaccine. (www.cidrap.umn.edu) In the UK seasonal flu shots and Covid boosters are recommended only for over 65s and for “high-risk” individuals in other age groups. Elderly Britons have been advised not to get the RSV vaccine at the same time as the flu or Covid shots (www.bbc.com), probably because of the high risk of autoimmune reactions to the vaccine combination, which include fatalities. (https://www.fda.gov/media/169088/download?attachment)

LONG COVID IS OVERDIAGNOSED, AND THE VACCINE DOESN’T PREVENT IT: “Vague symptoms, overlap with other illnesses complicate long-COVID diagnosis” www.cidrap.umn.edu September 30, 2024…”Study puts understanding of long COVID and vaccination into question” www.cidrap.umn.edu September 4…”Association of COVID-19 Vaccination with Risk of Medically-Attended Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 During the Ancestral, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron Variant Eras” Swift et al, Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2024. “We found no association between vaccination status at time of infection and subsequent development of medically diagnosed PASC. Further research is needed to identify effective measures to prevent and treat PASC.”

SUDDEN INFANT DEATHS SHARPLY INCREASED DURING THE PANDEMIC. WHY? (“Rates of Sudden Unexpected Infant Death Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic” Guare et al, JAMA Network Open online September 26, 2024) The US rate of SUID reached a level not seen since 1996, when there were 101.4 cases per 100,000 live births. From 2018 to 2021 there were 94.2, 93.2, 96,4, and 102.7 cases per 100,000 live births. The authors speculate that the increase might be related to RSV, but the dramatic jump in SUID remains a mystery.

PERTUSSIS HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED IN THE US THIS YEAR; 15,661 cases as of September 21, compared to 3,635 cases during the same period in 2023. 13% of cases occurred in infants and 31% occurred in the 1-6 year age group. There was 1 fatality for every 365 infant cases. Fully vaccinated children can still get pertussis, and about 41% of cases in all age groups had been fully vaccinated. https://wonder.cdc.gov/nndss/static/2023/52/2023-52-table990.html

MEASLES CASES HAVE MODESTLY INCREASED; 264 US cases as of September 26, 2024. Yearly reported cases 2019-2023: 1274, 13, 49,121, 59. (https://ww.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) Immunity from measles vaccine wanes slowly, about 0.04% per year. (“Long-term waning of vaccine-induced immunity to measles in England: a mathematical modelling study” Robert et al, Lancet Public Health online September 26, 2024) In 2019 about 7% measles patients had previously received two doses of vaccine.

VACCINATION COVERAGE IN US CHILDREN HAS DROPPED: (“Decline in Vaccination Coverage by Age 24 Months and Vaccination Inequities Among Children Born in 2020 and 2021—National Immunization Survey-Child, United States, 2021-2023” Hill et al, MMWR, September 26, 2024) Over a 2-year period the percentage of two year-olds who had received all vaccinations on the schedule (DTaP, IPV, MMR, Hib, HepB, varicella, PCV) fell from 70.1% to 66.9%. For influenza vaccine the fall was from 63.4% to 55.6%.

INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATHS ARE DOWN: From 2019 to 2023 the age-adjusted death rates per 100,000 were 12.3, 13,0, 10.5, 11.3, and 10.8. (“Leading Causes of Death in the US, 2019-2023” Ahmad et al, JAMA online August 8, 2024) I did a 15-year correlation between yearly flu vaccine doses distributed (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm) and influenza-pneumonia death rates (https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/) R was minus 0.841, P<0.0001, suggesting that flu shots were preventing deaths. But correlation is not causation and is probably explained in this case by the healthy vaccinee bias. Did Covid-19 displace circulating influenza viruses, or was there a diagnostic switch, fostered by public health policies and PCR testing?

MISCELLANY: 1. Since 2010 US life expectancy flatlined but continued to rise in other high income countries. The primary cause was rising mortality rates in the 25-64 year age group, fostered by income inequality and a profit-driven health care system. (“Increasing Mortality Rates in the US, but Not From COVID-19” Woolf, JAMA online August 29, 2024)…2. A corrupt FDA. (“Donanemab: Conflicts of interest found in FDA committee that approved new Alzheimer’s drug” Lenzer & Brownlee, BMJ 2024;386:q2012, September 25)…3. (“Will we ever know where covid-19 came from? Looi, BMJ 2024;386:q1578, September 9) Probably not…4. Natural immunity from infection is a good thing. (“Pre-existing immunity to influenza aids ferrets in developing stronger and broader H3 vaccine-induced antibody responses” Ge et al, Vaccine online July 29, 2024)

ALLAN S. CUNNINGHAM 3 October 2024 Cooperstown NY 13326 USA